forecast

I see this stock rally, at the very latest, lasting into mid-March of next year and I see the Dow hitting as high as 19,000. The key sign of the final peak would be a rebound in oil and a final “risk-on” rally in commodities, gold and stocks. If oil gets back into the $70s that would be the time to start selling stocks and all risk-on financial assets.
-Harry Dent

US elections historical trends:
1 year before - strongest
election year - neutral
1 year after - weakest

India

India looks like the next big thing to me and will likely be the first foreign country we advise to invest in after the next crash ahead, likely by late 2016 to early 2017. Much of the rest of the emerging world is too linked to commodity exports and won’t see a sustainable turnaround until that 30-year commodity cycle bottoms between 2020 and 2023 - Harry Dent

Pessimism

A higher perception of risk can lower the actual risk by driving prices down.  We like the prices that pessimism produces. -Christopher Davis

Mark Mobius views

Mark Mobius:
Emerging markets on recovery phase
US on sustainable growth path
EU and Japan recovering
Emerging market themes -consumer, commodities
Oil demand won't be affected much by shale gas
(interview with the Star)

ICAP Investor Day 2014

Take home message from Tan Teng Boo's talk-work hard at what you do, when you become good at it,  passion (and riches) will follow.

Profound thought!

Lazy woman cannot be pretty
Pretty woman can be lazy

Investment ideas

falling oil price is good news for India and Japan

Alibaba looks like a good way to play the long-term China growth story, and Yahoo is a simple way to give you access to Alibaba

Brazil JPB IBZL

Central America

a stronger dollar could be good news for other markets. As long as the euro is weakening, that's a positive sign (perhaps the only one) for troubled eurozone markets. The same goes for Japan. A weak yen (not to mention falling raw materials prices) is good news for Japan too.

(money morning)

Poultry stock's PER

verge of collapse

Tan Teng Boo believes global financial markets  are in a very dangerous situation... only China will escape unscathed...  don't buy shares or properties now.

(source : The Edge )

market view

As far as geographical exposure goes, we continue to recommend over-weight positions in the developed world (Europe, Japan and the US).  Since April 2011, the developed world has outperformed the emerging nations by a wide margin and we expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. However, over the past few weeks, a number of emerging markets ETFs have broken out of multi-month trading ranges, so we now recommend modest exposure this area.

In terms of specifics, we continue to see incredible momentum in India’s stock market!  You will recall that we first recommended exposure to this market several months ago and despite the recent run up, we see plenty of potential.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong has recently broken out of a lengthy consolidation phase and even Taiwan’s stock market is gaining momentum.  So, our readers can consider looking for opportunities in these stock markets.

Over in South America, Brazil’s stock market is showing signs of strength and the uptrend could continue for several months.

In summary, the monetary backdrop remains favourable towards stocks, America’s housing market is rebounding and a variety of technical indicators are showing strength.  Therefore, we continue to believe that the ongoing primary uptrend will continue for several months, so our readers should stay fully invested in common stocks.

Although this bull market is mature and we will get some volatility heading into spring, the path of least resistance remains up and investors should stay positioned for the northbound journey.

- Puru Saxena

crash ahead

"This stock bubble is getting very steep and the possibility of an avalanche is growing. For those investors with passive 401(k)s, IRAs or retirement brokerage accounts, look into selling stocks on every rally in the weeks and months ahead. It’s better to be a bit early rather than a bit late in getting out."
"There are a few of us who remain entrenched in our bearish camp… There’s Robert Prechter, Robert Shiller, and George Soros, to name just three. Soros just made a $2.2 trillion short bet on U.S. stocks and he is rarely wrong. I’d suggest you listen to these guys, as well as us."
-Harry Dent

Debunkery - Ken Fisher

I read this book recently. To sum it up all this is what he recommends:

invest in stocks all the time even when you are retired
in the long term it performs better than any other assets
the market will always bounce back even after a bear



so just get into stocks when you can
forget about dollar averaging
diversify diversify diversify
growth, value, small caps, US, foreign, various sectors
just buy them and hold
don't trade or time the market
it is too complex for any single indicator to be reliable
that includes pe ratio, interest rates, comsumer confidence and whatnot
or events like sars, terrorism, unemployment
only exception is the presidential cycle
and all these are proven by historical facts
cash flow management is the key
diversity smoothens out the volatility

Well, that's the long term strategy
but who can wait for long term
we all want to become rich now ! right? 

5 Warren Buffett quotes to remember

There's a huge difference between the business that grows and requires lots of capital and the business that grows and doesn't require capital.

I look for businesses in which I think I can predict what they're going to look like in ten to fifteen years time.

You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.

We just try to buy businesses  with good-to-superb underlying economics run by honest and able people and buy them at sensible prices.

Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.

Plantation companies with exposure in Indonesia

Investment ideas

The “IKEA indicator” says buy Indonesia

 
Europe's recovery is over – so it's time to buy European shares because of more QE

Bank of Japan remains one of the central banks that is still firmly stuck in 'looser' monetary policy mode

Source:moneyweek

top cement companies in Malaysia

Lafarge
YTL
Cement industries Malaysia
Tasek
Hume
Holcim
CMS

(source : RHB)

investment tips

from moneyweek unless specified otherwise

- three specific investing styles have been shown by research to deliver market-beating returns over the long run. Buy cheap stocks. Buy small caps. And buy winners – stocks that are in a rising trend beat those on a losing trend
For quite a while, Ibbotson has been doing research into liquidity. He reckons that he’s proved that illiquid stocks beat liquid ones over the long run, and that this is another measure to add to the three existing ‘factors’

-platinum, palladium

-On a global basis, demand and inventory trends suggest a pick-up in economic activity in the second half of the year. If so, our high single digit forecast for 2014 equity market returns should be able to withstand the onset of (eventually) tighter monetary policy in the US. The ongoing M&A boom probably won’t hurt either. ::: Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

-shorting the Kiwi versus the US dollar

-Buy Japan. All else being equal, a stronger dollar and a weaker yen are good news for the Japanese market.

Incinerator to be built in Kepong

Incinerator to be built in   Kepong.

Which countries are Peter Schiff bullish on?

It’s kind of like a monetary or economic triage; I’m always looking around the world to see which countries are in the least bad shape, which countries are the least reckless and the least irresponsible. You really can’t find any one country that’s doing it perfectly. You just have to find the ones that are making the fewest mistakes.

And I think high on that list are Singapore and Hong Kong. Those markets are relatively free of regulation, free of taxation. I mean, it’s not nonexistent, but on a relative basis you have a lot more freedom there, and so you have a lot more prosperity there. You have much better economic fundamentals. And not just in those two places, but in Southeast Asia in general, in a lot of the emerging economies, you’ll find a lot less government and a lot more freedom. People are working harder, they’re saving, they’re producing, and they’re exporting. You don’t have these trade deficits, budget deficits, and you don’t have armies of people looking to retire on government entitlements. In Europe, we still like Switzerland even though they are making mistakes tying their currency to the euro. I think eventually they will change that policy. Scandinavia, we have been investors in Norway, we’ve been investors in Sweden. Also Australia and New Zealand have been longtime favorites. We’ve been investing down there or even closer to home in Canada. We do have some investments in South America. We’re diversifying around the world trying to get into the right countries, the right currencies, the right asset classes.
- Peter Schiff (CEO of Euro Pacific Capital)

investment ideas 2014

David Garff
- Japan, China, Russia

Money morning
- Japan
-commodities
- South korea, mexico, china

Schroders
- thrifty three :South Korea, Taiwan, Philipines
- fragile five: India, Indonesia, south Africa, Turkey, Thailand

Andrew Sheng
- Indonesia

Eastspring investments on Malaysia
- oil gas, plantation, selective insurance, telco, construction, industrial and consumer

S.Dali
-Generally positive, B+ for markets for first 6 months at least. Dangers of overshooting on upside which will bring forth volatile trading. Potential correction catalysts are predictable so far. But then again they do not call Black Swans Black Swans if I can see them through normal eyes.

Shah Gilani - We're just rounding up the last stages of this generational bull market's first leg. There will be two more legs higher.

Van R. Hoisington, Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.
-The slow nominal growth rate anticipated for 2014 should continue to put downward pressure on the inflation rate as the insufficiency of demand continues to create highly competitive markets. With slower inflation, lower long-term interest rates are a probable outcome.

fund house views

Fund houses' views from Fundsupermart fair 2014

Kenanga
US - debt ceiling no longer critical, support form midterm elections
China - potential financial risks (default, shadow banking), slowdown in growth
Japan - depend on further structural reforms
Malaysia- growth by export recovery, risk rising inflation (weaker domestic consumption), sovereign downgrade risks diminished, valuations not cheap, small caps historically high PE but potential growth, themes: OG, export recovery plays, construction, property (2H), yield plays with earnings support (not reits)
Synchronized global growth, still favor developed markets in 1H

Hwang IM - o&G

RHB OSK - 1H developed markets, 2H emerging markets

Eastspring - Malaysia themes - stock pick mid-cap growth equities; O&G, ETP, construction, banks, subsidy rationalization e.g. TNB, VMY, GST service providers

Concerns - rising costs, geopolitical, policy missteps, Europe, China