- UK
- GBP
- Japan
- Europe
- defense ETF ITA
- mining commodities
- zinc as predictor
- slv, copper
Risks:
- US midterms 2018
- US elections 2020
- indexing bubble
Showing posts with label investing idea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investing idea. Show all posts
February 25, 2018
even more outlook 2018
Buy:
- UK
- GBP
- Japan
- Europe
- defense ETF ITA
- mining commodities
- zinc as predictor
- slv, copper
Risks:
- US midterms 2018
- US elections 2020
- indexing bubble
- UK
- GBP
- Japan
- Europe
- defense ETF ITA
- mining commodities
- zinc as predictor
- slv, copper
Risks:
- US midterms 2018
- US elections 2020
- indexing bubble
July 26, 2017
3 stocks sectors that will win in the Fed's great balance sheet unwind
1. Healthcare
2. US small caps
3. Europe
-Stephen McBride
July 26, 2016
Investment strategies in Asia if Trump triumphs
Nomura highlights some investment strategies to adopt if Trump makes it to the White House.
1) FX strategy
Direct risks to foreign exchange in Southeast and South Asia are likely to be less severe than in Northeast Asia, says Nomura.
In Asia, Nomura recommends being short Chinese yuan and Korean won, and long Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit.
“We believe the impact on IDR and MYR would be more contained, given robust growth, relatively favourable political and policy developments and bond inflows into both countries,” Nomura says.
2) Rates strategy
Nomura believes a Trump victory is likely to make central banks shift their bias further towards easier-for-longer policies.
“In such an environment we expect investors to focus on high-quality carry trades where an idiosyncratic domestic story is favourable for local rates,” Nomura says.
This would benefit rates market in Korea, India, Malaysia and Australia, while Hong Kong and Singapore are likely to underperform US rates.
“As far as trade recommendations are concerned, we believe receive 3yr MYR NDIRS; long 7yr MGS; long 7yr IGB; receive AUD 2yrfwd1yr IRS; receive KRW 3yr; and receive THB 5yr positions would perform,” says Nomura.
“We would express our view of HKD and SGD rate underperformance via pay HKD 5yr vs USD 5yr and pay SGD 2yr vs USD 2yr positions,” it adds.
3) Equity strategy
If Trump becomes president, Nomura says “an initial negative reaction in equities” is likely, but the longer term impact on equities beyond that is unclear.
China, Korea and the Philippines are likely to be most affected, followed by India, Singapore and Indonesia in the next group, and the least impact seen in Thailand and Malaysia.
“Specifically, we would expect our Asia Arms Race basket (rising risks of confrontation in the region), defensive stocks in Thailand and Malaysia (markets least impacted), and higher-yield stocks (to the extent that a Trump presidency contributes to lower global yields) to outperform,” says Nomura.
“Longer-term, downsides to growth and rising uncertainty in policy would imply a further flattening of our expected trend for Asian equities over the next 12-24 months,” Nomura adds.
1) FX strategy
Direct risks to foreign exchange in Southeast and South Asia are likely to be less severe than in Northeast Asia, says Nomura.
In Asia, Nomura recommends being short Chinese yuan and Korean won, and long Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit.
“We believe the impact on IDR and MYR would be more contained, given robust growth, relatively favourable political and policy developments and bond inflows into both countries,” Nomura says.
2) Rates strategy
Nomura believes a Trump victory is likely to make central banks shift their bias further towards easier-for-longer policies.
“In such an environment we expect investors to focus on high-quality carry trades where an idiosyncratic domestic story is favourable for local rates,” Nomura says.
This would benefit rates market in Korea, India, Malaysia and Australia, while Hong Kong and Singapore are likely to underperform US rates.
“As far as trade recommendations are concerned, we believe receive 3yr MYR NDIRS; long 7yr MGS; long 7yr IGB; receive AUD 2yrfwd1yr IRS; receive KRW 3yr; and receive THB 5yr positions would perform,” says Nomura.
“We would express our view of HKD and SGD rate underperformance via pay HKD 5yr vs USD 5yr and pay SGD 2yr vs USD 2yr positions,” it adds.
3) Equity strategy
If Trump becomes president, Nomura says “an initial negative reaction in equities” is likely, but the longer term impact on equities beyond that is unclear.
China, Korea and the Philippines are likely to be most affected, followed by India, Singapore and Indonesia in the next group, and the least impact seen in Thailand and Malaysia.
“Specifically, we would expect our Asia Arms Race basket (rising risks of confrontation in the region), defensive stocks in Thailand and Malaysia (markets least impacted), and higher-yield stocks (to the extent that a Trump presidency contributes to lower global yields) to outperform,” says Nomura.
“Longer-term, downsides to growth and rising uncertainty in policy would imply a further flattening of our expected trend for Asian equities over the next 12-24 months,” Nomura adds.
May 29, 2016
Investment ideas
👉Silver
👉Driverless cars as a disruptor
- Dominic Frisby
👉Japan -Rising buybacks, the promise of more money printing, and a market that’s widely disliked
- John Stepek
👉Positive on European equities
- Amundi
May 02, 2016
Investment ideas
👉Gold. Central banks put money in everyone's bank account so prices go up.
👉You do not want to hold long-term bonds when inflation expectations start to ramp up.
👉The last time people hated the banks this much, they went up for four years straight
- Jared Dillian
👉Oil long term 5 year trade with BHP Billiton as proxy tracking WTIC - - Dominic Frisby
👉until inflation reaches the point where the Fed can’t just ignore it or shrug it off, it’ll be happy to keep rates at a level where they don’t rattle markets.
👉Continue favour Europe and Japan
👉 bets on a weaker dollar this yearwhich suggests that emerging markets, commodities and gold trades remain good bets for 2016.
- John Stepek
November 01, 2014
India
India looks like the next big thing to me and will likely be the first foreign country we advise to invest in after the next crash ahead, likely by late 2016 to early 2017. Much of the rest of the emerging world is too linked to commodity exports and won’t see a sustainable turnaround until that 30-year commodity cycle bottoms between 2020 and 2023 - Harry Dent
October 07, 2014
Investment ideas
falling oil price is good news for India and Japan
Alibaba looks like a good way to play the long-term China growth story, and Yahoo is a simple way to give you access to Alibaba
Brazil JPB IBZL
Central America
a stronger dollar could be good news for other markets. As long as the euro is weakening, that's a positive sign (perhaps the only one) for troubled eurozone markets. The same goes for Japan. A weak yen (not to mention falling raw materials prices) is good news for Japan too.
(money morning)
August 03, 2014
investment tips
from moneyweek unless specified otherwise
- three specific investing styles have been shown by research to deliver market-beating returns over the long run. Buy cheap stocks. Buy small caps. And buy winners – stocks that are in a rising trend beat those on a losing trend
For quite a while, Ibbotson has been doing research into liquidity. He reckons that he’s proved that illiquid stocks beat liquid ones over the long run, and that this is another measure to add to the three existing ‘factors’
For quite a while, Ibbotson has been doing research into liquidity. He reckons that he’s proved that illiquid stocks beat liquid ones over the long run, and that this is another measure to add to the three existing ‘factors’
-platinum, palladium
-On a global basis, demand and inventory trends suggest a pick-up in economic activity in the second half of the year. If so, our high single digit forecast for 2014 equity market returns should be able to withstand the onset of (eventually) tighter monetary policy in the US. The ongoing M&A boom probably won’t hurt either. ::: Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
-shorting the Kiwi versus the US dollar
-Buy Japan. All else being equal, a stronger dollar and a weaker yen are good news for the Japanese market.
March 28, 2014
Which countries are Peter Schiff bullish on?
It’s kind of like a monetary or
economic triage; I’m always looking around the world to see which
countries are in the least bad shape, which countries are the least
reckless and the least irresponsible. You really can’t find any one
country that’s doing it perfectly. You just have to find the ones that
are making the fewest mistakes.
And I think high on that list are Singapore and Hong Kong. Those markets are relatively free of regulation, free of taxation. I mean, it’s not nonexistent, but on a relative basis you have a lot more freedom there, and so you have a lot more prosperity there. You have much better economic fundamentals. And not just in those two places, but in Southeast Asia in general, in a lot of the emerging economies, you’ll find a lot less government and a lot more freedom. People are working harder, they’re saving, they’re producing, and they’re exporting. You don’t have these trade deficits, budget deficits, and you don’t have armies of people looking to retire on government entitlements. In Europe, we still like Switzerland even though they are making mistakes tying their currency to the euro. I think eventually they will change that policy. Scandinavia, we have been investors in Norway, we’ve been investors in Sweden. Also Australia and New Zealand have been longtime favorites. We’ve been investing down there or even closer to home in Canada. We do have some investments in South America. We’re diversifying around the world trying to get into the right countries, the right currencies, the right asset classes.
- Peter Schiff (CEO of Euro Pacific Capital)
And I think high on that list are Singapore and Hong Kong. Those markets are relatively free of regulation, free of taxation. I mean, it’s not nonexistent, but on a relative basis you have a lot more freedom there, and so you have a lot more prosperity there. You have much better economic fundamentals. And not just in those two places, but in Southeast Asia in general, in a lot of the emerging economies, you’ll find a lot less government and a lot more freedom. People are working harder, they’re saving, they’re producing, and they’re exporting. You don’t have these trade deficits, budget deficits, and you don’t have armies of people looking to retire on government entitlements. In Europe, we still like Switzerland even though they are making mistakes tying their currency to the euro. I think eventually they will change that policy. Scandinavia, we have been investors in Norway, we’ve been investors in Sweden. Also Australia and New Zealand have been longtime favorites. We’ve been investing down there or even closer to home in Canada. We do have some investments in South America. We’re diversifying around the world trying to get into the right countries, the right currencies, the right asset classes.
- Peter Schiff (CEO of Euro Pacific Capital)
January 31, 2014
investment ideas 2014
David Garff
- Japan, China, Russia
Money morning
- Japan
-commodities
- South korea, mexico, china
Schroders
- thrifty three :South Korea, Taiwan, Philipines
- fragile five: India, Indonesia, south Africa, Turkey, Thailand
Andrew Sheng
- Indonesia
Eastspring investments on Malaysia
- oil gas, plantation, selective insurance, telco, construction, industrial and consumer
S.Dali
-Generally positive, B+ for markets for first 6 months at least. Dangers of overshooting on upside which will bring forth volatile trading. Potential correction catalysts are predictable so far. But then again they do not call Black Swans Black Swans if I can see them through normal eyes.
Shah Gilani - We're just rounding up the last stages of this generational bull market's first leg. There will be two more legs higher.
Van R. Hoisington, Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.
-The slow nominal growth rate anticipated for 2014 should continue to put downward pressure on the inflation rate as the insufficiency of demand continues to create highly competitive markets. With slower inflation, lower long-term interest rates are a probable outcome.
- Japan, China, Russia
Money morning
- Japan
-commodities
- South korea, mexico, china
Schroders
- thrifty three :South Korea, Taiwan, Philipines
- fragile five: India, Indonesia, south Africa, Turkey, Thailand
Andrew Sheng
- Indonesia
Eastspring investments on Malaysia
- oil gas, plantation, selective insurance, telco, construction, industrial and consumer
S.Dali
-Generally positive, B+ for markets for first 6 months at least. Dangers of overshooting on upside which will bring forth volatile trading. Potential correction catalysts are predictable so far. But then again they do not call Black Swans Black Swans if I can see them through normal eyes.
Shah Gilani - We're just rounding up the last stages of this generational bull market's first leg. There will be two more legs higher.
Van R. Hoisington, Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.
-The slow nominal growth rate anticipated for 2014 should continue to put downward pressure on the inflation rate as the insufficiency of demand continues to create highly competitive markets. With slower inflation, lower long-term interest rates are a probable outcome.
December 01, 2013
investment ideas
from MoneyWeek
- China cheap, US expensive
- Japan
- big data
- subsaharan Africa
-fundamentals are against higher oil prices
-Eurozone shares, ECB money printing
- China cheap, US expensive
- Japan
- big data
- subsaharan Africa
-fundamentals are against higher oil prices
-Eurozone shares, ECB money printing
October 15, 2013
investment ideas
low PBV and PE China banks - Global X China Financials Fund (CHIX) - Steve Sjuggerud
Russia (RSX)- David Fessler
KO,CVS,MIDD,GILD - Money Morning
Ireland- Money Morning
September 28, 2013
investment ideas
Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning:
- Singapore
- Chile (best-run country in LatAm, strong mineral sector)
- Phillipines
The world needs ever more food – and Latin America is the place to invest- James McKeigue
Crowdfunding: Seedrs, Crowdcube
- Singapore
- Chile (best-run country in LatAm, strong mineral sector)
- Phillipines
The world needs ever more food – and Latin America is the place to invest- James McKeigue
Crowdfunding: Seedrs, Crowdcube
September 03, 2013
investment ideas
Marc Lichtenfeld : effect of rising interest rates in US
- bond funds lose money, short term bonds are less damaged
- individual bonds won't lose money if held until maturity (unless default)
- Dividend stocks could fall temporarily; opportunity for long term investors to buy
- short term selloffs in stocks should not worry long term investors
- stock market doesn’t have to fall after rates rise
Lars Henriksson: Asian markets current sell-off will ease off over the next two months, coinciding with the seasonally strong November to February period
- bond funds lose money, short term bonds are less damaged
- individual bonds won't lose money if held until maturity (unless default)
- Dividend stocks could fall temporarily; opportunity for long term investors to buy
- short term selloffs in stocks should not worry long term investors
- stock market doesn’t have to fall after rates rise
Lars Henriksson: Asian markets current sell-off will ease off over the next two months, coinciding with the seasonally strong November to February period
August 25, 2013
investment ideas
-iShares 20-year Bond etf, symbol TLT
Bonds are significantly more oversold beneath their long-term 200-day moving average than at any time in at least the last 15 years (after warning of QE tapering)
-Bonds typically rally when the economy is weak
-S&P 500 extremely overbought above its long-term 200-day moving average, while sentiment for bonds is at high levels of pessimism, and are extremely oversold beneath their 200-day m.a.
Sy Harding
-Australia stocks (ETF: EWA)
-economy is built on resource demand, from both developed and emerging markets around the globe.
Martin Hutchinson (Money Morning)
-Brazil, emerging Asia
- emerging market stocks “have been hit hardest by the fear of the taper”. This suggests “that’s the place to go looking for bargains right now.
John Stepek (Money Morning)
Bonds are significantly more oversold beneath their long-term 200-day moving average than at any time in at least the last 15 years (after warning of QE tapering)
-Bonds typically rally when the economy is weak
-S&P 500 extremely overbought above its long-term 200-day moving average, while sentiment for bonds is at high levels of pessimism, and are extremely oversold beneath their 200-day m.a.
Sy Harding
-Australia stocks (ETF: EWA)
-economy is built on resource demand, from both developed and emerging markets around the globe.
Martin Hutchinson (Money Morning)
-Brazil, emerging Asia
- emerging market stocks “have been hit hardest by the fear of the taper”. This suggests “that’s the place to go looking for bargains right now.
John Stepek (Money Morning)
August 08, 2013
investment ideas
from Money Morning:
- Japanese propoerty
- lower potash price good for farmers, India
- lead, zinc
- green ships (Rolls royce)
- Argentinian farm
- mining sector on China turnaround
- Brazil IBZL
- South Korea
- Japan
- Russia
August 11, 2012
February 19, 2012
investment ideas
Emerging Markets dividend stocks - WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Yielding Equity ETF (NYSE: DEM).
-Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning
"war in the region might persuade Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, something it’s threatened several times before. As 40% of the oil barrels shipped around the world has to travel through the Strait, crude prices could be sent skyward."
-Matthew Partridge, Money Morning
when looking for safe haven, Yen becomes strong
When Yen is weak, Japanese stocks become strong
Japanese stocks are cheap
-John Stepek, Editor, MoneyWeek
Canada’s house price bubble is set to burst
Short the Canadian dollar
A huge drop in demand for commodities seems well underway
Short the Austalia dollar
-David Stevenson, Money Morning
India is the place to be in 2012
-Cris Sholto Heaton
-Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning
"war in the region might persuade Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, something it’s threatened several times before. As 40% of the oil barrels shipped around the world has to travel through the Strait, crude prices could be sent skyward."
-Matthew Partridge, Money Morning
when looking for safe haven, Yen becomes strong
When Yen is weak, Japanese stocks become strong
Japanese stocks are cheap
-John Stepek, Editor, MoneyWeek
Canada’s house price bubble is set to burst
Short the Canadian dollar
A huge drop in demand for commodities seems well underway
Short the Austalia dollar
-David Stevenson, Money Morning
India is the place to be in 2012
-Cris Sholto Heaton
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)