fund house views

Fund houses' views from Fundsupermart fair 2014

Kenanga
US - debt ceiling no longer critical, support form midterm elections
China - potential financial risks (default, shadow banking), slowdown in growth
Japan - depend on further structural reforms
Malaysia- growth by export recovery, risk rising inflation (weaker domestic consumption), sovereign downgrade risks diminished, valuations not cheap, small caps historically high PE but potential growth, themes: OG, export recovery plays, construction, property (2H), yield plays with earnings support (not reits)
Synchronized global growth, still favor developed markets in 1H

Hwang IM - o&G

RHB OSK - 1H developed markets, 2H emerging markets

Eastspring - Malaysia themes - stock pick mid-cap growth equities; O&G, ETP, construction, banks, subsidy rationalization e.g. TNB, VMY, GST service providers

Concerns - rising costs, geopolitical, policy missteps, Europe, China

investment ideas

from MoneyWeek
- China cheap, US expensive
- Japan
- big data
- subsaharan Africa
-fundamentals are against higher oil prices
-Eurozone shares, ECB money printing

ICAP 2013 AGM & Investor Day

Tan Teng Boo seems to think that QE tapering and rising interest rates is inevitable, and this will have consequences to the emerging markets.

With the re-emergence of China and decline of US, it is a dangerous situation where some sort of conflict can easily be triggered (drawing parallel from WW1)

Chinese people need to raise their self esteem. Start from using your own name instead of ang moh name. Especially obvious with overseas Chinese like HK and Malaysia (well, they were under the British. I also think many people do this to reduce transparency. How many salespeople and businessman have you met who doesn't use their full name in public? Bloggers too, haha...)

Western people are paranoid about the rise of China.... observations drawn from various sources.

investment ideas

low PBV and PE China banks - Global X China Financials Fund (CHIX) - Steve Sjuggerud

Russia (RSX)- David Fessler

KO,CVS,MIDD,GILD - Money Morning
Ireland- Money Morning

investment ideas

Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning:
- Singapore
- Chile (best-run country in LatAm, strong mineral sector)
- Phillipines

The world needs ever more food – and Latin America is the place to invest- James McKeigue

Crowdfunding: Seedrs, Crowdcube

investment ideas

Marc Lichtenfeld : effect of rising interest rates in US
- bond funds lose money, short term bonds are less damaged
- individual bonds won't lose money if held until maturity (unless default)
- Dividend stocks could fall temporarily; opportunity for long term investors to buy
- short term selloffs in stocks should not worry long term investors
- stock market doesn’t have to fall after rates rise


Lars Henriksson: Asian markets current sell-off will ease off over the next two months, coinciding with the seasonally strong November to February period

investment ideas

-iShares 20-year Bond etf, symbol TLT
Bonds are significantly more oversold beneath their long-term 200-day moving average than at any time in at least the last 15 years (after warning of QE tapering)
-Bonds typically rally when the economy is weak
-S&P 500 extremely overbought above its long-term 200-day moving average, while sentiment for bonds is at high levels of pessimism, and are extremely oversold beneath their 200-day m.a.
Sy Harding

-Australia stocks (ETF: EWA)
-economy is built on resource demand, from both developed and emerging markets around the globe.
Martin Hutchinson (Money Morning)

-Brazil, emerging Asia
- emerging market stocks “have been hit hardest by the fear of the taper”. This suggests “that’s the place to go looking for bargains right now.
John Stepek (Money Morning)