How the yield curve forecasts recession

Very steep yield curve - inflation is likely to accelerate
Inverted yield curve - predicts coming recession
When inversion ends and begins to steep again - economic recovery, great time to buy bonds

- Rob Insana , Message of the Markets

Note: this warning sign may have become surpressed under the Fed's artificial low interest rate policy

Franklin Templeton Investments market outlook 2H2017

Developed markets : 

-potential negative long-term challenges on the horizon for equities 

Emerging markets :

- India, Indonesia, Brazil,Argentina and Colombia 

- more consumer-driven and technology sectors

3 Rules of Thumb for Policymakers

3 Rules of Thumb for Policymakers - Ray Dalio

1. Don't have debt rise faster than income
2. Don't have income rise faster than productivity
3. Do all that you can to raise your productivity

10 Causes of Major Stock Market Crashes

10 causes of major stock market crashes:

• political events 
• government actions
• war, terrorist attack
• currency crisis
• credit crisis
• debt defaults
• bank failures
• commodity price crisis
• stock crashes in a major market becomes contagious
• technical (flash crashes)

Many of these events cannot be predicted. These events can happen anywhere in the world. Global markets are now highly correlated. Thus, to avoid these black swans with certainty, you'd have to be out of the market most of the time. 

Hence, an investor should stay invested and the safest way to invest is by value investing.

Here's 2 Things Which Could Upset the Malaysian Market

Potential black swans for Malaysia in 2017, according to James Hay (Pangolin Investment):

1. terrorist attack
2. rising interest rates

overconnected

Key takeways from the book Overconnected by William H. Davidow :

• connectedivity created new business models (e.g. railroad, internet)
• overconnectivity can cause instability from positive feedback 
• overconnectivity can cause vulnerability from overspecialization
• complex systems are at risk of accidents and contagions
• overconnectivity was a factor in the collapse of Iceland and the subprime crisis
• need to reduce the positive feedback (e.g. through regulation), design more robust systems and restructure overconnected systems

ICAP AGM/Open Day 2016

Notes:

• not good outlook for O&G, property
• not keen on USD beneficiaries (short term)
• cash as call option
• clean energy and electric/driverless cars (Tony Seba)
• entrepreneurship is tough in Malaysia (different from independent business operator)
• use heart-mind to make decision (Mencius)
• opium trade benefited US (e.g. funded ivy league universities)
•  Trump to win elections (disastrous policies)