SP500: 55dma crosses down through the 21dma - sell
for now the trend is up
For now the bond market is telling me that the inflation trade - or that risk - is back on. That means that cash is not the place to be, but assets - be it gold, equities or commodities - are.
-Dominic Frisby, Money Morning
March 02, 2012
February 19, 2012
investment ideas
Emerging Markets dividend stocks - WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Yielding Equity ETF (NYSE: DEM).
-Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning
"war in the region might persuade Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, something it’s threatened several times before. As 40% of the oil barrels shipped around the world has to travel through the Strait, crude prices could be sent skyward."
-Matthew Partridge, Money Morning
when looking for safe haven, Yen becomes strong
When Yen is weak, Japanese stocks become strong
Japanese stocks are cheap
-John Stepek, Editor, MoneyWeek
Canada’s house price bubble is set to burst
Short the Canadian dollar
A huge drop in demand for commodities seems well underway
Short the Austalia dollar
-David Stevenson, Money Morning
India is the place to be in 2012
-Cris Sholto Heaton
-Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning
"war in the region might persuade Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, something it’s threatened several times before. As 40% of the oil barrels shipped around the world has to travel through the Strait, crude prices could be sent skyward."
-Matthew Partridge, Money Morning
when looking for safe haven, Yen becomes strong
When Yen is weak, Japanese stocks become strong
Japanese stocks are cheap
-John Stepek, Editor, MoneyWeek
Canada’s house price bubble is set to burst
Short the Canadian dollar
A huge drop in demand for commodities seems well underway
Short the Austalia dollar
-David Stevenson, Money Morning
India is the place to be in 2012
-Cris Sholto Heaton
January 31, 2012
market view
- China slowing down
- weaker British pound
David Stevenson, Associate editor, MoneyWeek
- India
- junior gold stocks
- silver
John Stepek, Editor,MoneyWeek
January 21, 2012
market view
- move from emerging market currencies to dollars
- keep in Indian currencies if you must
- buy gold
Merryn Somerset Webb, Editor-in-chief, MoneyWeek
- oil prices to fall
- Europe and Japan is looking cheap
- short AUD
John Stepek, Editor, MoneyWeek
- gold price $1900 end of 2012, or 2013
Dominic Frisby
2012 themes:
attractive - treasury bonds, quality dividend stocks, small luxuries, consumer staples and foods, dollar against euro/aud/canadian, healthcare providers, rental apartments, productivity enhancers, north american energy
unattractive - developed country stocks, home builders, house prices, consumer discretionary, consumer lenders, banks, junks bonds, emerging country bonds, emerging market stocks, commodities price, old tech capital equipments producers
Gary Schilling
- keep in Indian currencies if you must
- buy gold
Merryn Somerset Webb, Editor-in-chief, MoneyWeek
- oil prices to fall
- Europe and Japan is looking cheap
- short AUD
John Stepek, Editor, MoneyWeek
- gold price $1900 end of 2012, or 2013
Dominic Frisby
2012 themes:
attractive - treasury bonds, quality dividend stocks, small luxuries, consumer staples and foods, dollar against euro/aud/canadian, healthcare providers, rental apartments, productivity enhancers, north american energy
unattractive - developed country stocks, home builders, house prices, consumer discretionary, consumer lenders, banks, junks bonds, emerging country bonds, emerging market stocks, commodities price, old tech capital equipments producers
Gary Schilling
December 02, 2011
property investing in Malaysia
Ways to make money from property investment:
- discount from developer
- rental return- completed medium cost apartments; 7-8% pa; poor appreciation; timing not needed; tenant management
- capital appreciation - completed landed homes; poor rental return 3-5%; good appreciation 5-10%; timing important
- commercial properties (shoplots, offices) -rental 6-8% pa; good appreciation 5-10%; location important; for wealthy individuals
- raw land development
- plantation
- orchards/ecofarms
- property development
- buy basic or run-down house - refurbish
- abandoned/haunted house
- auctions
- accessibility being upgraded - OKR, Kesas, Guthrie
- area with new projects
- residential convert to commercial - main roads with conversion potential
- student accomodation - near LRT
- flipping
- bird nest farming
November 15, 2011
DOMINAN
Dominant Enterprise Bhd is involved in the manufacturing and trading of flat laminated and moulded wood products, targeting furniture makers and home fitting manufacturers.
Let's look at some figures for Q1FY12:
ROE and ROR is 12% and 4% respectively on a five year average basis. The ROR is on the low side, unfortunately. For comparison, it is around 12% for Evergreen and Eksons.
Revenue and profit has risen since listing in 2003. Currently, local market accounts for a major part of its revenue. It also exports to Australia, Singapore, Europe, US, Asia and other overseas market. Risks include material cost, oil price and forex risks.
From its annual report 2011: "Our strategy going forward is to identify expansion opportunities in overseas markets and to develop innovative products that cater to consumers’ tastes."
I can't find any analyst covering it, probably because of its low market capitalization.
It is undervalued according to my calculations, so I have been eyeing it for some time. It's liquidity is rather low and price has been on the downtrend since early this year. However it gives a good dividend yield, around 7%. Dividend payout around 30-40% the past few years.
Its price have been consolidating for the past 3 months. If you have bought it at 48c, now you will already have about 10% gain. I noticed it risen on some volume yesterday, so I have initiated a position in it today.
Let's look at some figures for Q1FY12:
- current ratio =1.84
- working capital - LTD = $76m
- debt/equity = 0.05
- LTD/PAT = 0.6
- cash/debt = 0.13
ROE and ROR is 12% and 4% respectively on a five year average basis. The ROR is on the low side, unfortunately. For comparison, it is around 12% for Evergreen and Eksons.
Revenue and profit has risen since listing in 2003. Currently, local market accounts for a major part of its revenue. It also exports to Australia, Singapore, Europe, US, Asia and other overseas market. Risks include material cost, oil price and forex risks.
From its annual report 2011: "Our strategy going forward is to identify expansion opportunities in overseas markets and to develop innovative products that cater to consumers’ tastes."
I can't find any analyst covering it, probably because of its low market capitalization.
It is undervalued according to my calculations, so I have been eyeing it for some time. It's liquidity is rather low and price has been on the downtrend since early this year. However it gives a good dividend yield, around 7%. Dividend payout around 30-40% the past few years.
Its price have been consolidating for the past 3 months. If you have bought it at 48c, now you will already have about 10% gain. I noticed it risen on some volume yesterday, so I have initiated a position in it today.
October 09, 2011
index investing using SMA
Let's consider 3 methods of investing based on market indices.
We use the 3 years' chart as of Oct 9, 2011 (approximate values used). 14 market indices are used.
A - buy an index when its 30 week simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 50 week SMA and sell the index when the opposite occurs
B - buy an index when its 50 day SMA crosses above the 200 day SMA and sell the index when the opposite occurs
C - buy an index when its 50 day SMA crosses above the 200 day SMA and sell the index when the opposite occurs but with the 200d SMA turning down
Our benchmark is D, the three year return as of Oct 2011 (approximate).
We see that method B & C have the superior performance compared to A (in green). However both underperform the benchmark for 10 indices (in yellow). This is especially for the emerging markets.
However if we took 4 years instead of 3 years, the results might have been very different. Each method would probably have outperformed the benchmark since they would have avoided the bear market of 2008.
Using method B & C would yield about 10% per annum (including US) over a 3 year period. 4 markets (ASX, TW, Hang Seng and Shanghai) return less than 6% per year!
Note that if we managed to buy at the exact low and sell at the exact high (our holy grail!) would have return at least 30% per year for most of the markets.
Someone (I forgot who) recommended selling stocks (distribute) when the 30w SMA is below the 50w SMA while buying stocks (accumulate) when the opposite occurs. Based on the results above, I think using the faster moving 50d and 200d SMA would perform slightly better.
However I would also think that selling and buying gradually in such a manner would risk being equivalent to selling and then buying back at the same levels (e.g. sell at 1000, 800, 600 then buy at 600, 800 and 1000.) especially if the index moved sideways in the longer term.
Better of course would be sell mostly in the beginning of the bear and buy mostly at the start of the bull (based on the SMA). The risk to this would be too short bull and bear duration or sideways market in which case the commission will be costly.
We use the 3 years' chart as of Oct 9, 2011 (approximate values used). 14 market indices are used.
A - buy an index when its 30 week simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 50 week SMA and sell the index when the opposite occurs
B - buy an index when its 50 day SMA crosses above the 200 day SMA and sell the index when the opposite occurs
C - buy an index when its 50 day SMA crosses above the 200 day SMA and sell the index when the opposite occurs but with the 200d SMA turning down
Our benchmark is D, the three year return as of Oct 2011 (approximate).
We see that method B & C have the superior performance compared to A (in green). However both underperform the benchmark for 10 indices (in yellow). This is especially for the emerging markets.
However if we took 4 years instead of 3 years, the results might have been very different. Each method would probably have outperformed the benchmark since they would have avoided the bear market of 2008.
Using method B & C would yield about 10% per annum (including US) over a 3 year period. 4 markets (ASX, TW, Hang Seng and Shanghai) return less than 6% per year!
Note that if we managed to buy at the exact low and sell at the exact high (our holy grail!) would have return at least 30% per year for most of the markets.
Someone (I forgot who) recommended selling stocks (distribute) when the 30w SMA is below the 50w SMA while buying stocks (accumulate) when the opposite occurs. Based on the results above, I think using the faster moving 50d and 200d SMA would perform slightly better.
However I would also think that selling and buying gradually in such a manner would risk being equivalent to selling and then buying back at the same levels (e.g. sell at 1000, 800, 600 then buy at 600, 800 and 1000.) especially if the index moved sideways in the longer term.
Better of course would be sell mostly in the beginning of the bear and buy mostly at the start of the bull (based on the SMA). The risk to this would be too short bull and bear duration or sideways market in which case the commission will be costly.
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